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Theme 2: Modelling, Economics, Evidence-synthesis
This theme is focussed on collating and synthesising a large amount of previous work, as well as collecting new information to support decision making regarding vaccination programmes in England. The Joint Committee on Vaccines and Immunisations (JCVI) relies on robust cost-effectiveness analyses to inform their decisions to amend current vaccination schedules or introduce new vaccine programmes. The JCVI also require being up-to-date with worldwide strategies to control vaccine-preventable diseases. To support this decision making and to extend the worldwide evidence-base, the work theme uses three approaches:
- Mathematical modelling of infectious disease transmission dynamics to both evaluate current epidemiology of important disease trends and predict the impact of new vaccine schedules. Mathematical models are crucial
- Health economics to evaluate the costs associated with vaccine delivery and the cost-effectiveness of proposed changes to vaccine programmes, and
- Compilation of a publically available database of vaccine reviews for wide dissemination of the impact of vaccination for policymakers and academics.
- Understanding Influenza transmission
We are evaluating the transmission of influenza and simulating the impact of vaccination using transmission models to optimize the scheduling of the possible maternal vaccination programme, the planned childhood vaccination programme, and the existing elderly and risk group programme.
- Costing of flu vaccination
Optimising a programme requires knowledge of how much the programme costs to administer. We will estimate the cost of influenza vaccination to optimise flu vaccine delivery.
- Database of vaccination related reviews
Many meta-analyses, systematic reviews and general reviews are performed on vaccine related issues. In this project we will collate them into an easily accessible online database.
- The burden of pneumonia
To evaluate the impact of pneumococcal vaccination among the elderly, this project seeks to understand the burden of pneumonia in the hospital since 2002 – a period which includes the use of a pneumococcal vaccine in those aged 65 and risk groups over and the introduction of a childhood vaccination programme.
- The cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis vaccination
The maternal pertussis programme to protect pregnant women and their new-born babies has been successfully introduced in England as an emergency measure against recent pertussis outbreaks. We are evaluating the cost-effectiveness of this introduction and support future decision making regarding the programme’s continuation.
- Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination
Several alternative and additional strategies are suggested for the HPV vaccination programme. The HPRU investigates both the epidemiological impact as well as the comparative cost-effectiveness of these alternatives.
To support the control of the ebola outbreak in West Africa, the team helps with modelling and investigating the current and previous outbreaks ebola.